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In this article, we will share the real GDP growth forecast for the year 2019 for 193 countries across the globe. International Monetary Fund (IMF) categorizes these countries into 15 regions. IMF aggregates these regions into four super-regions: Western hemisphere, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Africa. We will look at the growth leaders and laggards in the different regions.
In January 2019, IMF revised down the world GDP growth forecast for the year 2019 from 3.7% to 3.5%. IMF also provided the revised growth rate forecasts for the major economies. We will share the latest available data from IMF for all the countries. Along with the real GDP growth forecast for 2019, we will also present the nominal GDP (in US $ billions) forecast for the year 2019. This data is shown to indicate the size of the different economies.
Before we present the country rankings by regions, let us look at the top-20 and bottom-20 countries by real GDP growth in 2019.
Top-20 and Bottom-20 countries by real GDP growth - 2019 forecast
Among the top-20 and bottom-20 countries of the 193 countries, we will highlight the rankings of a few large economies.
- India is ranked seventh with a real GDP growth of 7.5%.
- Philippines is ranked 16 with a real GDP growth of 6.6%.
- Japan is ranked 174 with a real GDP growth of 1.1%.
- Italy is ranked 180 in the real GDP growth rankings. In the January 2019 update, Italy real GDP growth for 2019 was revised downwards from 1.0% to 0.6%.
- Turkey is ranked 183 with a real GDP growth forecast of 0.4%.
- Argentina is ranked 188 with a real GDP growth of -1.6%.
- Iran is ranked 191 with a real GDP growth of -3.6%.
- Venezuela is ranked last with a real GDP growth of -5.0%.
The chart below presents the top-20 and bottom-20 countries of the 193 countries ranked by the real GDP growth.
Americas real GDP growth by regions and countries - 2019 forecast
IMF calls Americas super-region as ‘Western Hemisphere’. It consists of 36 countries. IMF forecasts Western hemisphere super-region real GDP growth to be 2.4%. It consists of four regions: North America, Central America, South America, and the Caribbean.
United States is the growth leader in North America, despite its mega-size economy. The US real GDP growth is estimated to be 2.5% in 2019.
In the January 2019 update, Canada real GDP growth was revised downwards from 2.0% to 1.9% and Mexico real GDP growth was revised downwards from 2.5% to 2.1%.
Brazil is a major economy in South America region. IMF forecasts Brazil real GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2019.
The chart below presents the real GDP growth of 36 countries in the Americas super-region.
Europe real GDP growth by regions and countries - 2019 forecast
The Europe super-region consists of 42 countries. IMF forecasts Europe super-region real GDP growth to be 2.0%. It consists of two regions: Western Europe and Eastern Europe. We further classify Eastern Europe countries into two groups: those who are the members of the European Union (EU) and those who are not.
In the January 2019 update, Germany real GDP growth was revised downwards from 1.9% to 1.3% and Italy real GDP growth was revised downwards from 1.0% to 0.6%. Italy is now ranked last not only in Western Europe region but also Europe super-region.
France, the UK, and Germany are ranked 17, 18, and 19 of the 21 countries in Western Europe.
Of the 21 Eastern Europe countries, Russia is ranked last with a real GDP growth of 1.6%. In January 2019 update, the real GDP growth of Russia was revised downwards from 1.8% to 1.6%.
The chart below presents the real GDP growth of 42 countries in the Europe super-region.
Asia Pacific real GDP growth by regions and countries - 2019 forecast
The Asia Pacific super-region consists of 61 countries. IMF forecasts Asia Pacific super-region real GDP growth to be 5.2%. It consists of seven regions: East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Australia and New Zealand, and Pacific islands.
China is ranked third of the seven countries in the East Asia region with a real GDP growth of 6.2%.
India leads South Asia region with a real GDP growth of 7.5%.
Indonesia is ranked sixth of 11 countries in the Southeast Asia region with a real GDP growth of 5.1%.
Saudi Arabia is ranked 10 of 12 countries in the Middle East region with a real GDP growth of 1.8%. In January 2019 update, the real GDP growth of Saudi Arabia was revised downwards from 2.4% to 1.8%.
The charts below presents the real GDP growth of 61 countries in the Asia Pacific super-region.
Africa real GDP growth by regions and countries - 2019 forecast
The Africa super-region consists of 54 countries. IMF forecasts Africa super-region real GDP growth to be 3.9%. It consists of two regions: North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigeria and South Africa, two of the major economies in Africa, are ranked 42 and 43 of the 49 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region with real GDP growth rates of 2.0% and 1.4% respectively. In January 2019 update, the real GDP growth of Nigeria was revised downwards from 2.3% to 2.0%.
The charts below presents the real GDP growth of 54 countries in the Africa super-region.
Notes
1. Data Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, October 2018 edition and January 2019 Update